Sharks visit Ducks aiming for season series sweep

Hockey Betting Lines

03/14/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After three straight come-from-behind victories, the Sharks finally ran out of magic on Saturday. Good thing they haven't need much when facing the Ducks this year.

San Jose kicks off a six-game road trip this evening versus Anaheim at the Honda Center aiming to sweep the season series for the first time in 11 seasons.

The Sharks are leading the Western Conference with 96 points, three more than the second-place Blackhawks and are also three points back of Washington for the most in the NHL.

The club took a three-game winning streak into Saturday's meeting with Florida, a run in which San Jose had to rally in each game after being down heading into the third period. The Sharks then jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first period yesterday, but failed to score again and ended up losing a 3-2 overtime decision to the Panthers.

Patrick Marleau and Ryane Clowe scored for the Sharks, who went 3-1-1 on a five-game homestand. Making his first start since Feb. 10, Thomas Greiss had 25 saves but allowed the winner at the 2:46 mark of overtime to Bryan Allen.

"We've got to put it behind us," said Sharks head coach Todd McLellan. "We accomplished a couple things tonight. We came out and we had a little fire in our belly and we played extremely hard in the first period but we let it get away from us though and that's the inconsistency in our game right now."

San Jose now hits the road for six straight and has won 10 of its last 12 as the guest. It opens the swing in Anaheim and will look to sweep the season series with the Ducks for the first time since it took all six meetings in 1997-98.

Anaheim eliminated top-seeded San Jose in last year's opening round of the playoffs as the eighth seed, but has been outscored 19-7 in losing all five regular season meetings this year. The Sharks have won six straight and eight of the last nine regular-season meetings overall, including four straight in Anaheim.

The Ducks have not been able to slow down the Sharks' top line of Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Marleau. Thornton has nine assists and 13 points versus the Ducks this year, while Marleau has five goals and 10 points. Heatley has chipped in with two goals and five assists as well.

Meanwhile, San Jose netminder Evgeni Nabokov, who should get the start tonight, has a 1.40 goals-against average while winning all five meetings.

Anaheim comes into this matchup struggling, as it has dropped a season high- tying five games in a row and has yet to win since the Olympic break ended. The Ducks were shut out for the second time on their current slide Friday, losing 1-0 to Nashville.

Jonas Hiller stopped 27 shots and the only goal in the contest came on a Predators power play with the Ducks down two men in the opening period. Anaheim, meanwhile, failed to get any of its 31 shots past Predators goaltender Pekka Rinne.

"We didn't really have a glorious number of chances in tonight's hockey game," said Anaheim head coach Randy Carlyle. "It was tight and it seemed they were content playing that way once they got the 5-on-3 goal. They were keeping four guys above the puck as much as possible and trying to block people out. We had some chances. We just weren't able to get one to go into the net for us."

The Ducks, who are 10 points out of a playoff spot, have now matched their 0-2-3 rut from Nov. 29-Dec. 6 and will try to avoid their first six-game slide since Jan. 20-Feb. 2, 2008.

Anaheim, which has been outscored 18-8 on its five-game slide, is 0-2-1 on a seven-game homestand and has lost four in a row as the host since a franchise- record 11-game home winning streak.

Hiller is 0-3-0 with a 3.03 GAA this year versus the Sharks and just 1-8-0 against them lifetime with a 2.49 GAA.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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